The first week of September has arrived, and with it comes more activity in the tropics, especially tropical waves with more potential for development.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean Sea.
NHC forecasters reduced the chances of development for two tropical waves to 30% at the 2 p.m. advisory. While some development is possible this week, they are no longer saying either could strengthen into tropical depressions.
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The third tropical wave, which first appeared in the central Atlantic on NHC's tropical outlook map at 8 a.m., is expected to run into conditions making it unfavorable for development later in the week.
The tropical waves the Hurricane Center highlighted on its tropical outlook map are located:
- In the Caribbean Sea
- In the far eastern Atlantic.
- In the central Atlantic
Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10, said Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Labor Day 2024 unusual for the tropics
AccuWeather forecasters said Labor Day weekend typically is one of the busiest times in the tropics. The most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October, with the peak arriving Sept. 10.
This year marked the first time in 27 years a named tropical storm did not develop in the Atlantic basin between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2, AccuWeather said.
Expect tropical activity to ramp up
Wind shear, which has helped prevent tropical waves from organizing, is expected to lessen by the middle of September.
Along with the transition to La Niña conditions and reduction in the amount of Saharan dust, forecasters are expecting tropical activity to increase this month.
The next named storm of the season will be Francine.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m., Sept. 3:
What's out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.
As this system moves westward, some development is possible when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: low, 30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive by the end of the week. This system could produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in a day or two.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: low, 30 percent.
Central tropical Atlantic Ocean: Another tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward. By the end of the week, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional development
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Tracking tropical waves? Here's latitude, longitude of where they are
- Eastern Atlantic: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 05N to 19N, and is moving westward at 17 to 23 mph.
- Central Atlantic: A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 04N to 20N. It is moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
- Central Caribbean: A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 20N southward to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward near 23 mph.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
The National Hurricane Center said the tropical wave could cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the Bay of Campeche over the weekend, bringing showers and thunderstorms to portions of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. but AccuWeather forecasters warned near-record water temperatures brings a potential for rapid intensification of any named storm that forms. Residents along the Gulf should watch the system closely.
It's still too early to determine if there will be any impacts to Florida from the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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